A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Maintenance of quick fluid rotation in the cores of long-lived oceanic eddies

Observations show a lot of coherent vortices in the World ocean with quick fluid rotation in their cores during long life time. To explain this feature, isopycnal balanced models of a circular vortex evolution with different variants of turbulent closure for isopycnal mixing considered. A linear dependence of the mixing coefficient on the local shear allows to describe damping of mixing in nearly solid body rotating core of the vortex and a gradual erosion of the core. Taking into account the radial motion leads even to increase of angular speed in time near the vortex center. There is a limit of angular speed for anticyclones defined by half of the Coriolis parameter. During the vortex evolution its size decreases in time unlike for usually used parameterization of mixing with the constant coefficient. These conclusions are supported by observational data. Maintenance of quick fluid rotation in the cores of long-lived vortices allow them to survive in their interactions with other flows and Rossby waves.     

Power Requirements for Vehicle Suspension Systems

This paper attempts to analyze the power requirements of a vehicle due solely to its suspension system, neglecting the important powers associated with air and rolling resistance. Power requirements for active and passive suspensions are compared using the simplest possible mathematical model. A mass in a gravity field moves at constant velocity over a surface and is supported by a point contact on the surface by a massless but otherwise arbitrary suspension system. It is shown that the average propulsive power required is equal to the average power lost in the suspension. In the limit cases of very stiff or very soft suspensions this power vanishes. Passive suspensions require no other power, but active suspensions may require significant extra power from the prime mover to generate the suspension forces.     

Home-based trip end models — A comparison between category analysis and regression analysis procedures

The trip end models which have been used in past transportation studies are briefly summarised. Problems associated with the use of zone-based models are outlined and reasons are given to support the development of models at the household rather than zonal level.It is suggested that recent developments which have taken place in household-based models have not been entirely logical. In particular, arguments between regression models and category analysis models have been confused with the use of aggregate (zonal) as against disaggregate (household) data — regression models being associated with the use of zonal data and category analysis models with household data. Misunderstood arguments and false notions regarding sample sizes have directed attention from the regression analysis approach.A detailed comparison of the category analysis and regression analysis methods for developing household-based trip end models is given. Both methods have been applied using data from the Monmouthshire Land Use Transportation Study. The regression results reported are from a very preliminary analysis and contain a number of anomalies, although it is thought that sufficient work has been done to provide an objective evaluation of the two methods.It is recommended that the household regression approach should be further investigated since it has advantages as a modelbuilding procedure and makes better use of sample data. A certain amount of categorisation of household types is necessary and the investigations would attempt to determine the best balance between categorisation and regression fitting. Further development will be restricted if the trend towards minimum sample sizes of about 1000 households is continued. Larger samples should be taken in certain circumstances to pursue development work.     

The strategic transportation research study — Its origins and purposes

The highway industry in the United States spends about $35 to $40 billion annually. Management of the industry is almost wholly decentralized. This decentralization plus diminishing fuel tax revenues used to finance road improvements have caused road research efforts to decline to a very low level. Comparisons between funds for highway research and those spent by private firms in similar industries show that private firms spend from 5 to 12 times the rate of highway agencies. The problem of how much to spend on research is difficult both for private-sector and for public-sector enterprises. The level of research spending is shown to correlate well with both profitability and growth in U.S. firms. Four methods used for making research decisions in the private sector are discussed. The goals of the Strategic Transportation Research Study (STRS), which is being conducted by the Transportation Research Board to examine highway and transportation needs, are described.     

Static and Dynamic Stability of Unsymmetric Two-Axle Railway Vehicles Possessing Perfect Steering

For railway vehicles having coned wheels mounted on solid axles, there is a conflict between the stability of lateral deviations from the motion along the track and the ability to steer round curves. A general theory is developed for the two-axle vehicle in which there is a lack of symmetry, fore-and-aft, both of the interwheelset structure and of the equivalent conicities of the wheelsets. It is shown that whilst parameters can be selected which provide static and dynamic stability and perfect steering for both directions of motion, there is a lightly damped mode of oscillation for any practical configuration and the significance of this is discussed.     

Economics of regulation in shipping

In this paper the author explores the nature and scope of social regulation in shipping comparing its nature with that of economic regulation per se. Whilst economic regulation affects liner shipping only, social regulation—impelled by a specific concern for health and environmental protection, rather than a desire for optimal resource allocation—effects all types of shipping. The legislation emerging from this has had important (and often overlooked)economic impact; focusing on the conditions, under which a carrier discharges his duties, these regulations may determine, to a greater or lesser degree, the levels of cost and service. He concludes that, whilst the concept of social regulation has a valid, humanitarian base, the cost of its implementation should not be underestimated.     

Optimal Control of the Tractor-Semitrailer Truck

This paper is concerned with the braking performance and the handling behavior of the tractor-semitrailer truck under optimal braking. Optimal control theory is used in order to deal with the problem and a combination of the steepest descent method and the Davidon Fletcher Powell method is used to solve it numerically. Results for some chosen braking maneuvers are obtained for a nonlinear truck model which has 14 degrees of freedom. These results show that, for the chosen maneuvers an idealized anti-skid braking is close to being optimal in the sense defined in this paper. Implementation of an idealized anti-skid braking on the tractor-semitrailer truck, however, may be not desirable.